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Stochastics Oscillator
Stochastics Oscillator
The Stochastics Oscillator is a technical momentum indicator that compares a security's closing price to its price range over a given time period, usually 14 periods. (1 period = 1 day for this example) This indicator is calculated with the following formula:
%K = 100[(C - L14)/(H14 - L14)]
%D = Smoothed, 3 day simple moving average of %K
C = the most recent closing price
L14 = the low of the 14 previous trading sessions
H14 = the highest price traded during the same 14-day period
As an example, below is a table of daily highs, lows and closing prices for a particular index over 14 trading days. On day 14, %K would be calculated as shown below where C=115.38, L14=109.13, and H14=119.94.
The Stochastics Oscillator is a technical momentum indicator that compares a security's closing price to its price range over a given time period, usually 14 periods. (1 period = 1 day for this example) This indicator is calculated with the following formula:
%K = 100[(C - L14)/(H14 - L14)]
%D = Smoothed, 3 day simple moving average of %K
C = the most recent closing price
L14 = the low of the 14 previous trading sessions
H14 = the highest price traded during the same 14-day period
As an example, below is a table of daily highs, lows and closing prices for a particular index over 14 trading days. On day 14, %K would be calculated as shown below where C=115.38, L14=109.13, and H14=119.94.
%K for trading day 14 where the index closed at 115.38 equals 57.81. This tells us that the index closed in the 58th percentile of the 14 day high/low range, or just above the mid-point. Because %K is a ratio, it will fluctuate between 0 and 100. A smoothed, 3-day simple moving average of %K is then plotted alongside to act as a trigger line, called %D.
Below is an example of a daily chart of IBM and its respective Stochastics Oscillator, courtesy of StockCharts.com. One of the more conventional and accurate ways to leverage this indicator is to indentify overbought and oversold situations by looking for divergences. For example, the stochastic oscillator produced 2 solid signals for IBM between Aug-99 and Mar-00. In Nov-99, a buy signal was given when the indicator formed a positive divergence and moved above 20 for the second time. Note that the double top in Nov-Dec (gray circle) was not a negative divergence, and thus the stock continued higher after this formed. In Jan-00, a sell signal was given when a negative divergence formed and the indicator dipped below 80 for the second time.
Williams %R Indicator
Williams %R Indicator
Developed by Larry Williams, Williams %R, also known simply as %R, is a momentum indicator that is popular for measuring overbought and oversold evels. The scale ranges from 0 to negative 100 with readings from 0 to -20 considered overbought, and readings from -80 to -100 considered oversold. The %R indicator shows the relationship of the close relative to the high-low range over a set period of time, usually 9, 14 or 28 days. The nearer the close is to the top of the range, the nearer to zero (higher) the indicator will be. The nearer the close is to the bottom of the range, the nearer to -100 (lower) the indicator will be. If the close equals the high of the high-low range, then the indicator will show 0 (the highest reading). If the close equals the low of the high-low range, then the result will be -100 (the lowest reading).
It is important to remember that overbought does not necessarily imply time to sell, and oversold does not necessarily imply time to buy. A security can be in a downtrend, become oversold and remain oversold as the price continues to trend lower. Once a security becomes overbought or oversold, traders should wait for a signal that a price reversal has occurred. One method that Larry Williams used was to wait for the %R line to cross below negative 30 if the indicator was overbought near 0, or wait for the %R line to cross above negative 70 if the indicator was oversold near negative 100.
Below is an example of the daily DOW chart with its associated Williams %R. For this analysis, we set the %R setting to a 28 day interval, which smoothes the data and eliminates some of the choppiness and false signals. The trigger to "go short" is set when the %R line drops down from an overbought level (zero) down through -30 (dotted line). And the trigger to "go long" is set when the %R line climbs from the oversold level (-100) up through -70. Note that many good triggers where given by the %R indicator in this example
Developed by Larry Williams, Williams %R, also known simply as %R, is a momentum indicator that is popular for measuring overbought and oversold evels. The scale ranges from 0 to negative 100 with readings from 0 to -20 considered overbought, and readings from -80 to -100 considered oversold. The %R indicator shows the relationship of the close relative to the high-low range over a set period of time, usually 9, 14 or 28 days. The nearer the close is to the top of the range, the nearer to zero (higher) the indicator will be. The nearer the close is to the bottom of the range, the nearer to -100 (lower) the indicator will be. If the close equals the high of the high-low range, then the indicator will show 0 (the highest reading). If the close equals the low of the high-low range, then the result will be -100 (the lowest reading).
It is important to remember that overbought does not necessarily imply time to sell, and oversold does not necessarily imply time to buy. A security can be in a downtrend, become oversold and remain oversold as the price continues to trend lower. Once a security becomes overbought or oversold, traders should wait for a signal that a price reversal has occurred. One method that Larry Williams used was to wait for the %R line to cross below negative 30 if the indicator was overbought near 0, or wait for the %R line to cross above negative 70 if the indicator was oversold near negative 100.
Below is an example of the daily DOW chart with its associated Williams %R. For this analysis, we set the %R setting to a 28 day interval, which smoothes the data and eliminates some of the choppiness and false signals. The trigger to "go short" is set when the %R line drops down from an overbought level (zero) down through -30 (dotted line). And the trigger to "go long" is set when the %R line climbs from the oversold level (-100) up through -70. Note that many good triggers where given by the %R indicator in this example
Advance/Decline Ratio Oscillator (ADRO)
Advance/Decline Ratio Oscillator (ADRO)
The advance/decline line is one of the most popular market breadth indicators. It is a very simple measure of how many stocks are taking part in a rally or sell-off and it's usually calculated from NYSE stocks. The A/D line is calculated as follows:
A/D Line = (# of Advancing Stocks - # of Declining Stocks) + Yesterday's A/D Line Value
The Advance/Decline Ratio Oscillator (ADRO) is a variation on the advance/decline line where it accounts for total market volume beyond the NYSE. The ADRO has a tendency to identify near-to-intermediate tops when the indicator is above 4.00, and near-to-intermediate bottoms when the indicator is at -2.00 or below. Below is an example of the ADRO through April 17, 2009, where on March 30, 2009 the market had 12 advancing stocks for every 1 declining stock, representing a strong rally with solid market breadth.
Chaikin Money Flow
Building on the Accumulation/Distribution Line that is discussed above, the formula for the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is the cumulative total of the Accumulation/Distribution Values for 21 periods divided by the cumulative total of volume for 21 periods. Below is an example, courtesy of stockcharts.com showing what the CMF looks like. The purple box encloses 21 days of Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) Values. The total A/D values over 21 days divided by the total volume over 21 days forms the value of CMF at the end of that 21 day series, denoted by the purple arrow. To calculate the next day, the A/D value from the first day is removed and the value for the next day is entered into the equation. Generally speaking, CMF is bullish when it is positive, indicating that the security is under accumulation. And CMF is bearish when it is negative, indicating the security is under distribution.
How To Trade
HOW TO TRADE?
Many people in the "trading" business are willing to sell you their trading system. This begs the obvious question, if the system is so good why would they sell it?
Even if the system is valid the vast majority of people would not make money trading it.
Why?
Because they will inevitably deviate from the system.
Why ?
You must trade your own beliefs in the market, not someone else's. This failure to follow occurs whenever there is a drawdown in someone else’s system that you are trying to trade.
Trading is money and money is emotion and when these emotions are put to the fire you will fail if you are not dealing with your own belief system. In order to stick with “the plan” in a drawdown you must believe in your plan and this belief can only come from the very core of who you are and your psychological relationship with your money at risk in the marketplace.
You must develop, design, and build your own system based on your own research. You can then build a database of trades that provide the trader a statistical basis on which they validate their trading system.
Many people in the "trading" business are willing to sell you their trading system. This begs the obvious question, if the system is so good why would they sell it?
Even if the system is valid the vast majority of people would not make money trading it.
Why?
Because they will inevitably deviate from the system.
Why ?
You must trade your own beliefs in the market, not someone else's. This failure to follow occurs whenever there is a drawdown in someone else’s system that you are trying to trade.
Trading is money and money is emotion and when these emotions are put to the fire you will fail if you are not dealing with your own belief system. In order to stick with “the plan” in a drawdown you must believe in your plan and this belief can only come from the very core of who you are and your psychological relationship with your money at risk in the marketplace.
You must develop, design, and build your own system based on your own research. You can then build a database of trades that provide the trader a statistical basis on which they validate their trading system.
Accumulation/Distribution (A/D Line)
The Accumulation/Distribution Line (A/D line) was developed by Marc Chaikin and is one of the most popular volume flow indicators to assess the early cumulative flow of money into and out of a security in order to anticipate price moves of the stock. An up-trending A/D Line suggests that buying pressure is building on higher volume, and a down-trending A/D Line indicates that selling pressure is building on higher volume. The basic premise behind the A/D line is that an increase in the volume of shares traded, e.g. per day, will precede an eventual move in the price of the stock. Many times before a stock advances there will be a period of increased volume in the stock on the UP days just prior to the price move of the stock. The A/D line focuses on the price action for a given period (e.g. daily) and generates a value based on the location of the close, relative to the range for the day. We will call this value the "Close Location Value" or CLV. The CLV ranges from plus one to minus one with the center point at zero. Below is a summary of the the rules to calculate CLV.
1. If the stock closes on the high, the top of the range, then the value would be plus one.
2. If the stock closes above the midpoint of the high-low range, but below the high, then the value would be between zero and one.
3. If the stock closes exactly halfway between the high and the low, then the value would be zero.
4. If the stock closes below the midpoint of the high-low range, but above the low, then the value would be between zero and minus one.
5. If the stock closes on the low, the absolute bottom of the range, then the value would be minus one.
Once the CLV is calculated, it is then multiplied by the corresponding period's volume, and the cumulative total forms the A/D Line. Below is an example of CIEN and how the A/D line is calculated, courtesy of stockcharts.com.
1. If the stock closes on the high, the top of the range, then the value would be plus one.
2. If the stock closes above the midpoint of the high-low range, but below the high, then the value would be between zero and one.
3. If the stock closes exactly halfway between the high and the low, then the value would be zero.
4. If the stock closes below the midpoint of the high-low range, but above the low, then the value would be between zero and minus one.
5. If the stock closes on the low, the absolute bottom of the range, then the value would be minus one.
Once the CLV is calculated, it is then multiplied by the corresponding period's volume, and the cumulative total forms the A/D Line. Below is an example of CIEN and how the A/D line is calculated, courtesy of stockcharts.com.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are widely used by professional traders and fund managers, and are designed to answer the question whether the price of a stock or index is high or low on a relative basis. Armed with this information, traders can make buy and sell decisions by using additional technical indicators to confirm price action of the stock or index that they are trading. The Bollinger band does not give absolute buy and sell signals simply by having been touched; rather, it provides a framework within which price may be related to other technical indicators.
Bollinger Bands are formed by calculating two standard deviations around a 20 day simple moving average of an underlying index or stock. Two standard deviations include about 95% of the chart's price data between the two trading bands. Because the standard deviation calculation is based on volatility, as the stock or index's volatility changes the width of the "envelope" will increase or decrease correspondingly.
Below is a chart of the DOW with its 20, 50, 100 and 200 day simple moving averages along with its Bollinger Bands (pink lines). The 20 day simple moving average is the thin blue line, which is the center point of the Bollinger envelope. Note how the width of the envelope opens and closes as volatility of this index changes. (when an index goes down, volatility usually increases) The main observation of this chart is that the DOW dropped by more than 390 points on the last trading day shown and it touched the bottom band. Therefore, on a relative basis, we know that the DOW index is low and some traders/professional money managers, after looking at additional technical indicators, might come to the conclusion that the DOW is oversold and is ready for a Bullish reversal - and at this point they might decide to open a Bullish trade.
Bollinger Bands are formed by calculating two standard deviations around a 20 day simple moving average of an underlying index or stock. Two standard deviations include about 95% of the chart's price data between the two trading bands. Because the standard deviation calculation is based on volatility, as the stock or index's volatility changes the width of the "envelope" will increase or decrease correspondingly.
Below is a chart of the DOW with its 20, 50, 100 and 200 day simple moving averages along with its Bollinger Bands (pink lines). The 20 day simple moving average is the thin blue line, which is the center point of the Bollinger envelope. Note how the width of the envelope opens and closes as volatility of this index changes. (when an index goes down, volatility usually increases) The main observation of this chart is that the DOW dropped by more than 390 points on the last trading day shown and it touched the bottom band. Therefore, on a relative basis, we know that the DOW index is low and some traders/professional money managers, after looking at additional technical indicators, might come to the conclusion that the DOW is oversold and is ready for a Bullish reversal - and at this point they might decide to open a Bullish trade.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) Technical Indicator
The Average Directional Index (ADX) Technical Indicator
The Average Directional Index (ADX), developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and also sometimes called the Direction Movement Index, or DMI, is used to evaluate the strength of a trend, be it up or down. The ADX indicates when a trend is present and the overall strength of the trend. The higher the ADX the stronger the trend.
The ADX system comprises three lines; +DI,–DI and the ADX line.
A) Positive Directional Indicator +DI; thin green line) indicates the strength of upward price pressure
B) Negative Directional Indicator (–DI; thin red line) indicates the strength of downward price pressure
C) Average Directional Index (ADX line; thin black line) shows the overall strength of a trend without regard to direction. The higher the ADX, over 20, the stronger the trend.
The ADX line combines +DI with –DI and then smoothes the data with a moving average to provide a measurement of trend strength. Because it uses both +DI and –DI, ADX does not offer any indication of trend direction, just strength. The ADX line fluctuates between 0 and 100, and readings above 60 are relatively rare. Low readings, below 20, indicate a weak trend, and high readings above 40 indicate a strong trend.
The ADX line can also be used to identify potential changes in a market from non-trending to trending. When ADX begins to strengthen from below 20 and/or moves above 20, it is a sign that the trading range is ending and an upward or downward trend could be developing.
The ADX indicator is traditionally interpreted as follows:
An ADX line rising above 20 indicates that a trend may be forming
+DI crossing above –DI is a buy signal
–DI crossing above +DI is a sell signal
The ADX line falling below 40 is an early indication of a change in trend
The ADX line should be between the DI lines when the market is trending
An ADX line below 25 indicates no particular trend is in place
Below is an example of IBM and its ADX indicator. Vertical line A shows an early stage of a deteriorating market about 2 1/2 months before the October 2008 crash. At this point the price chart still looks somewhat healthy where IBM is trading above its 100 day simple moving average (SMA; thick blue dotted line), and the 20 day SMA (thin blue line) is oscillating above and below its 50 day SMA (thin black line). However, we can see an early bearish indicator in the ADX line where the red line has crossed above the green line.
Three weeks later vertical line B shows the price chart getting weaker where the stock has dropped below all of its major simple moving averages, including its 200 day line. (thick black dotted line). At this point the ADX is telling us that bearishness is increasing since the red line has climbed and the green line has dropped. We can also see the ADX line (thicker black line) is trending upward, telling us that a bearish trend is probably forming.
An additional 3 weeks later we see that the stock has been hanging tough and trying to find support at its 200 day SMA. However, its 20 day SMA has crossed below its 200 day SMA, which is a major bearish signal. Additionally, we see negative divergence where the price chart is attempting to find stability at its 200 day line, but the ADX line is trending upward, shown via the trend line as drawn, telling us that a bearish trend is attempting to form.
Finally, 1 1/2 weeks later at vertical line D, we see that the stock is dropping hard and that the ADX line crossed above its center line, telling us that a bearish trend is gathering strength. These were some of the best early indicators telling us to sell our stock or to close-out our bullish or sideways option trades.
The Average Directional Index (ADX), developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and also sometimes called the Direction Movement Index, or DMI, is used to evaluate the strength of a trend, be it up or down. The ADX indicates when a trend is present and the overall strength of the trend. The higher the ADX the stronger the trend.
The ADX system comprises three lines; +DI,–DI and the ADX line.
A) Positive Directional Indicator +DI; thin green line) indicates the strength of upward price pressure
B) Negative Directional Indicator (–DI; thin red line) indicates the strength of downward price pressure
C) Average Directional Index (ADX line; thin black line) shows the overall strength of a trend without regard to direction. The higher the ADX, over 20, the stronger the trend.
The ADX line combines +DI with –DI and then smoothes the data with a moving average to provide a measurement of trend strength. Because it uses both +DI and –DI, ADX does not offer any indication of trend direction, just strength. The ADX line fluctuates between 0 and 100, and readings above 60 are relatively rare. Low readings, below 20, indicate a weak trend, and high readings above 40 indicate a strong trend.
The ADX line can also be used to identify potential changes in a market from non-trending to trending. When ADX begins to strengthen from below 20 and/or moves above 20, it is a sign that the trading range is ending and an upward or downward trend could be developing.
The ADX indicator is traditionally interpreted as follows:
An ADX line rising above 20 indicates that a trend may be forming
+DI crossing above –DI is a buy signal
–DI crossing above +DI is a sell signal
The ADX line falling below 40 is an early indication of a change in trend
The ADX line should be between the DI lines when the market is trending
An ADX line below 25 indicates no particular trend is in place
Below is an example of IBM and its ADX indicator. Vertical line A shows an early stage of a deteriorating market about 2 1/2 months before the October 2008 crash. At this point the price chart still looks somewhat healthy where IBM is trading above its 100 day simple moving average (SMA; thick blue dotted line), and the 20 day SMA (thin blue line) is oscillating above and below its 50 day SMA (thin black line). However, we can see an early bearish indicator in the ADX line where the red line has crossed above the green line.
Three weeks later vertical line B shows the price chart getting weaker where the stock has dropped below all of its major simple moving averages, including its 200 day line. (thick black dotted line). At this point the ADX is telling us that bearishness is increasing since the red line has climbed and the green line has dropped. We can also see the ADX line (thicker black line) is trending upward, telling us that a bearish trend is probably forming.
An additional 3 weeks later we see that the stock has been hanging tough and trying to find support at its 200 day SMA. However, its 20 day SMA has crossed below its 200 day SMA, which is a major bearish signal. Additionally, we see negative divergence where the price chart is attempting to find stability at its 200 day line, but the ADX line is trending upward, shown via the trend line as drawn, telling us that a bearish trend is attempting to form.
Finally, 1 1/2 weeks later at vertical line D, we see that the stock is dropping hard and that the ADX line crossed above its center line, telling us that a bearish trend is gathering strength. These were some of the best early indicators telling us to sell our stock or to close-out our bullish or sideways option trades.
Relative Strenth Index
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a popular momentum oscillator that was developed by J. Welles Wilder. The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock or index's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and converts this information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100. Below is an example of the DOW index with its 20, 50, 100 and 200 day simple moving averages (SMA), and its RSI oscillator.
There are a few ways to interpret and use the RSI:
Oversold/Overbought: If the RSI falls below 30 the stock/index is oversold, and if the RSI rises above 70 it is overbought. Additionally, if the stock/index trends above 30 it is considered bullish, and if the RSI trends below 70, it is a bearish signal. Some traders identify the long-term trend of a stock/index and then use extreme readings of the RSI as entry points. For example, if the long-term trend of a stock/index has been bullish, then a temporary RSI reading near 30 could mark a potential entry point.
Centerline crossover: The centerline for RSI is 50. A reading above 50 indicates that average gains for the stock/index are higher than average losses, and a reading below 50 indicates that losses are winning the battle. Some traders look for a move above 50 to confirm bullish signals or a move below 50 to confirm bearish signals.
As we can see for the DOW index chart above, the RSI dipped below 50. As a result, the RSI is telling us that average losses have been higher than the average gains over the last few weeks and sentiment is currently slightly bearish.
Oversold/Overbought: If the RSI falls below 30 the stock/index is oversold, and if the RSI rises above 70 it is overbought. Additionally, if the stock/index trends above 30 it is considered bullish, and if the RSI trends below 70, it is a bearish signal. Some traders identify the long-term trend of a stock/index and then use extreme readings of the RSI as entry points. For example, if the long-term trend of a stock/index has been bullish, then a temporary RSI reading near 30 could mark a potential entry point.
Centerline crossover: The centerline for RSI is 50. A reading above 50 indicates that average gains for the stock/index are higher than average losses, and a reading below 50 indicates that losses are winning the battle. Some traders look for a move above 50 to confirm bullish signals or a move below 50 to confirm bearish signals.
As we can see for the DOW index chart above, the RSI dipped below 50. As a result, the RSI is telling us that average losses have been higher than the average gains over the last few weeks and sentiment is currently slightly bearish.
macd indicator
Developed by Gerald Appel, The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Indicator (MACD) is one of the simplest and most reliable indicators available today. The first line created is the MACD Graph (thick black line) and is calculated by taking the difference between the 26 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), based on closing price, and the 12 day EMA, which creates a momentum oscillator that oscillates above and below zero. The second line created is the MACD trigger line (thin red line) which is a smoothed, 9 day EMA of the MACD graph.
Below is an example of the MACD indicator using the daily chart for Cisco Systems. The top price graph of CSCO is shown with its associated 12 day (light blue) and 26 day (dark blue) EMAs. The MACD Graph is the thick black line and we can see when the 12 day EMA crosses above the 26 day EMA, the black MACD Graph crosses above its center line. The thin red line is a smoothed, 9 day EMA of the black MACD Graph, and this creates the MACD signal line. The green/red histogram on the MACD indicator is the difference between the black MACD graph and the red MACD signal line. When the histogram is above the centerline and is green, this is a bullish indicator, and when the histogram is below the centerline and is red, this is a bearish indicator. Due to how the red signal line interacts with the black MACD graph, this indicator does have some leading, predictive qualities where it will trigger a bullish or bearish signal prior to the actual price move of the underlying security.
Below is an example of the MACD indicator using the daily chart for Cisco Systems. The top price graph of CSCO is shown with its associated 12 day (light blue) and 26 day (dark blue) EMAs. The MACD Graph is the thick black line and we can see when the 12 day EMA crosses above the 26 day EMA, the black MACD Graph crosses above its center line. The thin red line is a smoothed, 9 day EMA of the black MACD Graph, and this creates the MACD signal line. The green/red histogram on the MACD indicator is the difference between the black MACD graph and the red MACD signal line. When the histogram is above the centerline and is green, this is a bullish indicator, and when the histogram is below the centerline and is red, this is a bearish indicator. Due to how the red signal line interacts with the black MACD graph, this indicator does have some leading, predictive qualities where it will trigger a bullish or bearish signal prior to the actual price move of the underlying security.
The traditional way to use the MACD indicator is to consider each point of intersection between the black MACD graph and the red MACD signal line and use these crossovers as a trading signal. Therefore, one might decide to buy a stock when the black MACD line crosses above the red MACD Signal line pushing the histogram above the centerline, and to sell the stock when the black MACD line crosses below the red MACD Signal line pushing the histogram below the centerline.
5 to 35 oscilator
The 5–35 oscillator is a momentum indicator that is derived by calculating the difference between the value of the 5 period moving average and 35 period moving average. The red histogram on the bottom portion of the chart shown above is a 5-35 oscillator. In this example, the 5 day simple moving average (SMA) of the SPX index is shown on the chart in black, and the 35 day SMA is shown in dark blue. You can see how the value of the 5-35 oscillator/histogram tracks the difference between these two moving averages. Sometimes analysts will describe the 5-35 oscillator as buying or selling "pressure" on a stock or index. When the histogram is above zero there is positive buying pressure, and when the histogram is below zero there is negative selling pressure.
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how to calculat pivots points
How to Calculate Pivot Points
There are several different methods for calculating pivot points, the most common of which is the five-point system. This system uses the previous day's high, low and close, along with two support levels and two resistance levels (totaling five price points) to derive a pivot point. The equations are as follows:
R2 = P + (H - L) = P + (R1 - S1)
R1 = (P x 2) - L
P = (H + L + C) / 3
S1 = (P x 2) - H
S2 = P - (H - L) = P - (R1 - S1)
Here, "S" represents the support levels, "R" the resistance levels and "P" the pivot point. High, low and close are represented by the "H", "L" and "C" respectively.